As we approach the 4th quarter of 2015, we start preparing and planning for 2016. In that effort, we have developed a 2016 construction forecast report with our consensus view of the growth for 2016.
So far in 2015 for construction put-in-place, the sector has experienced an 8.5% increase when comparing the first half of 2015 to the first half of 2014. Residential is up 5%, Non-Residential is having a major increase of 22%, and Civil is down 2%.
According to our consensus forecast, 2015 construction starts (which is a precursor to construction put-in-place) will increase 8% overall. Residential will have the most growth with 11% while Non-Residential and Non-Building will both increase 7%.
Similarly for 2016 construction starts, we predict an 8% growth overall, but the mix will be a bit different. Residential will be even stronger at 16%, a reflection of single-family finally rebounding and multi-family maintaining growth. Non-residential will have strong Commercial growth with Office growing 15% given the stronger job market and Retail 11% given stronger consumer confidence.
Overall Non-residential is predicted to grow 8%. Non-building, on the other hand, will retract 2% given the decrease in infrastructure projects.
Geographically in 2016, the Southeast and West (including Rockies) are the key regions of growth with California, Arizona and Georgia leading the expansion. The four largest MSAs in terms of construction starts spend, New York, Houston, Dallas, and Los Angeles, will grow 8%, 2%, 14% and 18% respectively.
Overall 2016 should be a continuation of the current construction expansion we are experiencing in the US and should be a good year for construction.
For more details download our 2016 U.S. construction forecast report.
